Market motivators


Market Motivators Week Commencing 10/02/2020

Good evening everyone. Please find posted below the market motivators for this coming week. I usually look forward to the coming week but first I just wanted to highlight a couple of things that largely went under the radar last week. First is that China asked the US for help with the implementation of the phase1 trade deal and to sweeten that help they offered to cancel 75B USD of tariffs, does this explain the rather odd risk on movement of indices (and to a degree yen pairs except Friday) despite the increasing situation of Coronavirus? This is worth knowing to see if Trump tries to use this to his advantage in this coming week. The other thing was, and this is noteworthy only, is that a research project by geeks at MIT revealed a 70% chance of a recession in the next 6 months. The method for calculating this was used against recession data from the last 100 years.

Anyway onto this week’s events. We have some important GDP news coming out of UK and EU (Germany) this week, it’s all about Growth! Inflation data due from the US is also a biggie.

Lastly we have the RBNZ rate decision on Wednesday morning likely to hold the same, well for the whole year really but will CV and raw materials demand decrease but a dampener on economic projections for the kiwi?

For the UK keep and eye on negotiations chatter, this has largely had a negative effect on GBP but any indication from Boris on softening his stance could give a well needed boost.

Have a great week everyone, as things develop I’ll post into the main chat group.